Source text in English | Translation by Idris Musungu (#25793) |
Boom times are back in Silicon Valley. Office parks along Highway 101 are once again adorned with the insignia of hopeful start-ups. Rents are soaring, as is the demand for fancy vacation homes in resort towns like Lake Tahoe, a sign of fortunes being amassed. The Bay Area was the birthplace of the semiconductor industry and the computer and internet companies that have grown up in its wake. Its wizards provided many of the marvels that make the world feel futuristic, from touch-screen phones to the instantaneous searching of great libraries to the power to pilot a drone thousands of miles away. The revival in its business activity since 2010 suggests progress is motoring on. So it may come as a surprise that some in Silicon Valley think the place is stagnant, and that the rate of innovation has been slackening for decades. Peter Thiel, a founder of PayPal, and the first outside investor in Facebook, says that innovation in America is “somewhere between dire straits and dead”. Engineers in all sorts of areas share similar feelings of disappointment. And a small but growing group of economists reckon the economic impact of the innovations of today may pale in comparison with those of the past. [ … ] Across the board, innovations fueled by cheap processing power are taking off. Computers are beginning to understand natural language. People are controlling video games through body movement alone—a technology that may soon find application in much of the business world. Three-dimensional printing is capable of churning out an increasingly complex array of objects, and may soon move on to human tissues and other organic material. An innovation pessimist could dismiss this as “jam tomorrow”. But the idea that technology-led growth must either continue unabated or steadily decline, rather than ebbing and flowing, is at odds with history. Chad Syverson of the University of Chicago points out that productivity growth during the age of electrification was lumpy. Growth was slow during a period of important electrical innovations in the late 19th and early 20th centuries; then it surged. | Nyakati za boom zimerudi katika Bonde la Silicon. Viwanja vya ofisi kando na Barabara kuu ya 101 vimepambwa tena na insilia ya matumaini ya kuanza. Kodi inaongezeka, kama vile mahitaji ya nyumba za likizo fahari katika miji ya mapumziko kama Ziwa Tahoe, ishara ya mkusanyiko wa bahati. Eneo la Bay lilikuwa mahali pa kuzaliwa kwa tasnia ya semiconductor na kampuni za tarakilishi na mtandao ambazo zimekua zikiongezeka. Mwanga wake walitoa maajabu mengi ambayo yanafanya ulimwengu kuhisi futari, kutoka kwa simu za skrini-kugusa hadi kutafuta kwa mara moja kwa maktaba kubwa hadi kwa nguvu ya kumjaribu maelfu ya maili maili. Uamsho katika shughuli zake za biashara tangu 2010 unaonyesha maendeleo inaendelea. Kwa hivyo inaweza kuja kama mshangao kwamba wengine katika Bonde la Silicon wanafikiria mahali hapo ni pale, na kwamba kiwango cha uvumbuzi kimekuwa kizito kwa miongo. Peter Thiel, mwanzilishi wa PayPal, na mwekezaji wa kwanza wa Facebook, anasema kwamba uvumbuzi huko Amerika "ni mahali fulani kati ya shida kali na wafu". Wahandisi katika kila aina ya maeneo hushiriki hisia kama hizo za kukata tamaa. Na kikundi kidogo lakini kinachokua cha wachumi kinachochukulia athari za kiuchumi za uvumbuzi wa leo kinaweza kubadilika kulinganisha na yale ya zamani. Toka pande mmoja hadi mwingine, uvumbuzi unaosababishwa na nguvu ya usindikaji wa bei nafuu huondoa. Tarakilishi zinaanza kuelewa lugha asilia. Watu wanadhibiti michezo ya video kupitia harakati za mwili peke yao - teknolojia ambayo inaweza kupata matumizi katika sehemu nyingi za biashara. Uchapishaji wa sehemu tatu unaweza kutoa nje ya safu ngumu ya vitu, na hivi karibuni huweza kuendelea kwenye tishu za kibinadamu na vitu vingine vya kikaboni. Tamaa ya uvumbuzi inaweza kufutilia hii kama "jamani kesho". Lakini wazo kwamba ukuaji unaoongozwa na teknolojia lazima uendelee kupungua au kushuka kwa kasi, badala ya kuzunguka na mtiririko, haupatani na historia. Chad Syverson wa Chuo Kikuu cha Chicago anasema kwamba ukuaji wa tija wakati wa ujanaji ulikuwa utupu. Ukuaji ulikuwa polepole wakati wa uvumbuzi muhimu wa umeme mwishoni mwa karne ya 19 na mapema karne ya 20; basi ilizama. |