The moment when, 50 years ago, Neil Armstrong planted his foot on the surface of the Moon inspired awe, pride and wonder around the world. This newspaper argued that “man, from this day on, can go wheresoever in the universe his mind wills and his ingenuity contrives…to the planets, sooner rather than later, man is now certain to go.” But no. The Moon landing was an aberration, a goal achieved not as an end in itself but as a means of signalling America’s extraordinary capabilities. That point, once made, required no remaking. Only 571 people have been into orbit; and since 1972 no one has ventured much farther into space than Des Moines is from Chicago.
The next 50 years will look very different. Falling costs, new technologies, Chinese and Indian ambitions, and a new generation of entrepreneurs promise a bold era of space development. It will almost certainly involve tourism for the rich and better communications networks for all; in the long run it might involve mineral exploitation and even mass transportation. Space will become ever more like an extension of Earth—an arena for firms and private individuals, not just governments. But for this promise to be fulfilled the world needs to create a system of laws to govern the heavens—both in peacetime and, should it come to that, in war.
The development of space thus far has been focused on facilitating activity down below—mainly satellite communications for broadcasting and navigation. Now two things are changing. First, geopolitics is stoking a new push to send humans beyond the shallows of low-Earth orbit. China plans to land people on the Moon by 2035. President Donald Trump’s administration wants Americans to be back there by 2024. Falling costs make this showing off more affordable than before. Apollo cost hundreds of billions of dollars (in today’s money). Now tens of billions are the ticket price.
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It is a mistake to promote space as a romanticised Wild West, an anarchic frontier where humanity can throw off its fetters and rediscover its destiny. For space to fulfil its promise governance is required. At a time when the world cannot agree on rules for the terrestrial trade of steel bars and soybeans that may seem like a big ask. But without it the potential of all that lies beyond Earth will at best wait another 50 years to be fulfilled. At worst space could add to Earth’s problems. | Wakati ambapo, miaka 50 iliyopita, Neil Armstrong alipanda mguu wake juu ya uso wa Mwezi aliongoza mshtuko, kiburi na mshangao kote ulimwenguni. Gazeti hili lilisema kwamba "mwanadamu, tangu siku hii kuendelea, anaweza kwenda popote kwa akili ya ulimwengu na mapenzi yake yanafanya mambo mazuri ... kwa sayari, mapema badala ya baadaye, mwanadamu sasa atatakiwa kwenda." Lakini hapana. Kutua kwa Mwezi ilikuwa uhamishaji, lengo halikufanikiwa yenyewe kama mwisho lakini kama njia ya kuashiria uwezo wa ajabu wa Amerika. Uhakika huo, ukiwa umetengenezwa, haukuhitaji kurejea tena. Ni watu 571 tu ambao wameingia kwenye mzunguko na tangu 1972 hakuna mtu aliyeingia mbali zaidi katika nafasi kuliko Des Moines ni kutoka Chicago. Miaka 50 ijayo itaonekana tofauti sana. Gharama za kuporomoka, teknolojia mpya, matamanio ya China na India, na kizazi kipya cha wajasiriamali huahidi enzi ya ujasiri wa maendeleo ya nafasi. Karibu itahusisha utalii kwa mitandao tajiri na bora ya mawasiliano kwa wote; mwishowe inaweza kuhusisha unyonyaji wa madini na hata usafirishaji mkubwa. Nafasi zitakuwa kama nafasi ya kupanuliwa kwa Dunia - uwanja wa makampuni na watu binafsi, sio serikali tu. Lakini ili ahadi hii ikamilike ulimwengu unahitaji kuunda mfumo wa sheria kutawala mbingu- kwa wakati wa amani na, ikiwa itafika kwa vita. Uboreshaji wa nafasi hadi sasa umezingatiwa katika kuwezesha shughuli chini chini - mawasiliano ya setileti kwa utangazaji na urambazaji. Sasa mambo mawili yanabadilika. Kwanza, jiografia inasukuma kushinikiza mpya kutuma wanadamu zaidi ya shina la mzunguko wa chini wa Dunia. Uchina unapanga kutua watu juu ya Mwezi ifikapo mwaka 2035. Utawala wa Rais Donald Trump unataka Wamarekani warudi huko ifikapo 2024. Gharama za kushuka hufanya hii kuonyesha kuwa ya bei nafuu zaidi kuliko hapo awali. Apollo aligharimu mamia ya mabilioni ya dola (katika pesa za leo). Sasa makumi ya mabilioni ni bei ya tikiti. […] Ni kosa kukuza nafasi kama pori la pori la kimapenzi, ukingo wa anarchic ambapo ubinadamu unaweza kutupa turubaa zake na kugundua umilele wake. Kwa nafasi ya kutekeleza ahadi yake ya utawala inahitajika. Kwa wakati ambao ulimwengu hautakubaliana juu ya sheria za biashara ya ulimwengu ya baa za chuma na soya ambazo zinaweza kuonekana kama swali kubwa. Lakini bila hiyo uwezo wa yote yaliyo juu ya Dunia yatasubiri miaka 50 zaidi kutimizwa. Katika nafasi mbaya zaidi inaweza kuongeza shida za Dunia. |